Goodbye, 2011. Predictions for 2012

End of the year stories and blog posts like this typically have reporters, editors, and publishers reflecting on the good, the bad, and the ugly in news, sports, entertainment, and politics.

President Barack Obama

But instead of boring you with the same stories rehashed over again in Minnesota and through The Associated Press, I am going to cut right to the chase and write about the Iowa Republican caucuses. And with the caucuses coming up Tuesday, I am reminded of Democrats deciding who was going to challenge President George W. Bush in 2004.

As you may or may not recall, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean was leading the polls and had some considerable endorsements from key Democrats. But a couple of weeks prior to the Iowa Caucus, Dean was losing traction while Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina were gaining. The end result was Kerry winning with 37 percent, followed by Edwards at 31 percent and Dean at 18 percent (which led to infamous Dean scream).

Like 2004, there is as much disdain for President Barack Obama from Republicans and conservatives as there was Bush from Democrats and liberals. And like 2004, I foresee Republicans and conservatives picking the safest candidate they believe can beat Obama in 2012: Mitt Romney. It doesn't matter that he's flip flopped on economic and social issues over the years. It also doesn't matter that he's Mormon instead of an Evangelical Christian. The way Romney has carried himself throughout the campaign by not making any serious waves against the Republican Party itself is setting himself up for an easier nomination process - much to the chagrin of Democrats.

Mitt Romney

Months ago, I wouldn't have been able to tell you who would have won the Iowa Republican caucuses (I could only tell you Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann wasn't going to win despite winning the Iowa Straw Poll earlier this year). But as we've seen the media and conservative activists pick apart the candidates - not to mention the candidates ferociously going after one another for every last vote - Romney seems to be the one coming out the least damaged and prepared for a very expensive campaign battle. As of this writing, Romney is leading in the latest Des Moines Register poll, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich proved (at least to me) he couldn't remain competitive in the race forever with his strategy of bashing the media. Paul is scaring other candidates and even some of the most conservative Republicans like Iowa Congressman Steve King with some of his views on foreign policy. Texas Governor Rick Parry may look presidential, but he has sounded anything but presidential during debates and on the campaign trail. Santorum has been largely irrelevant until the last few days and there's more questions about whether he can stay financially competitive in a race with little money to continue forward. And Bachmann, well, she's Bachmann.

Prediction time on politics, sports, etc.

I don't like anointing candidates ahead of any caucus or primary. But I am making an easy prediction and saying Romney will not only win the Iowa Republican caucuses. He will go on to win the Republican nomination by Super Tuesday (March 6, 2012) and he will go on to pick Sen. John Thune of South Dakota as his running mate.

Ron Paul

I am also predicting that Paul will make a third party run for the White House and will be able to garner enough signatures to have his name added to the ballot in at least 40 states. Who he picks as his running mate, however, is a good question.

In congressional races in Washington, I am predicting that Republicans will regain control of the U.S. Senate and will hold on to the House of Representatives. However, I don't see House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell holding onto their leadership posts.

But through all of that, I see Obama being reelected again. Keep in mind, I am not a blind Obama loyalist. I just don't think any of the Republican candidates can beat him. And the way I see it, it's 2004 all over again with incumbent president beating the challenger (plus he'll hold onto Ohio and Pennsylvania).

Other predictions:

• The Vikings will finally secure a stadium deal from the Minnesota Legislature and Governor Mark Dayton; just don't expect it to be in Arden Hills or at the Metrodome site.
• The Vikings finish ahead of the Chicago Bears in the NFC North while the Detroit Lions win the division. Unfortunately, it will not save the jobs of Leslie Frazier (Vikings) and Lovie Smith (Bears).
• The DFL regains control of both chambers in the Minnesota Legislature, but with razor-thin margins.
• Minnesota voters will reject a constitutional amendment defining marriage between one man and one woman.
• System of a Down will finally reunite for a new album and tour in the U.S.

Well ladies and gentlemen, that's about it. Happy New Year's!

Herman Cain anything but simple

Herman Cain was anything but the simple man running for President of the United States he presented himself to be.

Herman Cain. Photo courtesy of Salon.com

He cast himself as an outside to Washington despite being the president and lobbyist of the National Restaurant Association. He had a tax plan that seemed like simple way to fix the tax code, but wound up raising a lot of questions if it would work and whom it would benefit. And he cast himself as someone with high moral character despite several allegations of sexual harassment and an affair that lasted more than a decade.

With those allegations taking their toll on Cain and his family, he announced Saturday that he was suspending his presidential campaign. Unlike most campaign suspensions, this move essentially put an end to his presidential campaign, at least for 2012. 

I can't blame him for taking a break from the campaign trail. The last two months have been anything but a smooth cruise toward the Iowa caucus in January. If anything, the recent sexual harassment and adultery allegations sound like a big conspiracy created by the mainstream media and "the political elite in Washington" to bring him down.

But instead of buying into the conspiracy, I was stuck watching some bizarre, yet entertaining political theater on television at what was supposed to be the grand opening of Cain's national headquarters in Atlanta.

Moments before Cain took the stage, his aides and supporters encouraged the crowd to vote for Cain and drive to early-voting states to drum up support. While Cain and his wife made their way to the stage, the music they chose (complete with Cain-esque lyrics) drowned out any cheering from the crowd - making him look like a smaller candidate than one of the top candidates in the Republican field. And then when Cain made the announcement, there were gasps and chants of "No!" from the audience.

So to paraphrase former NFL coach Dennis Green, Herman Cain is who we thought he was, which is a shame because he made the race interesting. Only this time, no one let him off the hook.

Gingrich is a pretender

First, my apologies for not blogging for a while. With the Vikings stadium debate continuing to go through as many rollercoasters as it does, it can eventually cause stadium opponents and supporters like myself a little burnout.

Newt Gingrich on the campaign trail. (AP)

With that said, I am back this week with the prediction that Newt Gingrich will not get the Republican nomination for President of the United States. In fact, I am willing to give him the title of pretender despite the latest Gallop poll showing Gingrich ahead of Mitt Romney with registered Republican voters. But among all Republican voters nationwide, it is Romney who is ahead of Gingrich, followed by Herman Cain.

Here's why: Republican voters and independents who don't want to see President Barack Obama return for another term will more likely pick Romney. He's got the money and can be a winner despite some of his flip flopping on the campaign trail.

The same can't be said about Gingrich, who has flip flopped issues such as U.S. involvement in Libya, global warming, and even health care. On top of that, Gingrich won't explain his work with Freddie Mac, but instead dismisses it as another "gotcha" question from the mainstream media.

I have said all along that bashing the mainstream media can only get you so far. Sure, it can elevate you "Flavor of the Month" if you're a registered Republican voter and can help you sell books or appear as a political analyst on the Fox News Channel. But it won't win you caucuses and primaries. And it especially won't win you the general elections for President of the United States.

If former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin couldn't pull it off as a vice presidential pick and as a potential candidate for President of the United States, what makes Gingrich believe he could do any better?

No special session in 2011. What now?

Any hopes of securing funding for a new stadium for the Minnesota Vikings are all but gone for this year.

Following a late afternoon meeting with legislative leaders Wednesday, Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton, a Democrat, declared that a stadium push was in "limbo" and complained state leaders weren't getting on board with his plan for a special session before Thanksgiving. As a result, he has cancelled future meetings this week, including one on Friday with Vikings owner Zygi Wilf, and is abandoning plans to release his own stadium proposal, which was scheduled Monday.

Gov. Mark Dayton

"My time table has been rejected by the Legislature," Dayton said. "Now the question is, what's their timetable?"

Word spread earlier in the day that House Speaker Kurt Zellers, a Republican, opposed to a special session. He emailed his 71 Republican colleagues - including my state representative John Kriesel - and said the issue should wait until the 2012 session. But the Vikings and Dayton hope to have the issue resolved before the team's lease expires at the Metrodome in January.

I can't
blame the Vikings and their fans for being disappointed in Wednesday's news. It not only increases the costs to the $1.1 billion stadium. It also gives the impression that the Vikings are not wanted in this state.  Although there were no specific threats of relocation, team spokesman Lester Bagley warned that after this season the Vikings "will be the only team without a lease."

"The strategy of avoiding a stadium issue has not worked," Bagley said. "It only gets more costly and more difficult to resolve, especially if they allow the lease to expire with no action."

Along with higher construction costs and a possible relocation elsewhere in the country, there are other reasons why Zellers' idea is a bad one.

House Speaker Kurt Zellers

First, the Republicans control both the House and Senate while Dayton is the Governor. Both sides failed to reach a budget agreement during the regular session in May and it resulted in a state government shutdown that lasted about two weeks and cost the state millions of dollars. The end result was Dayton caving and signing another budget that borrows and spends - which will ultimately lead to another deficit in two years.

Second, major spending bills like this never get done until the end of a regular session. The last time the Legislature passed a stadium bill was in May 2006 and after the Twins stadium proposal went through many hoops, including a fight whether to bypass a state law requiring voters to approve an increase in sales taxes. Zellers opposed funding for a new stadium then and continues to do so now.

Third, bills that ban abortion and gay marriage, along with voter identification requirements have been the focus of Zellers and other Republican leaders instead of jobs. Taking the familiar cue from former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Republican leaders will avoid the stadium issue and continue focusing on social issues to build their base before next November.

Finally, 2012 is an election year and every seat in the Legislature will be up for grabs following redistricting. Stadium funding continues to be a sticky issue for both Republicans and Democrats. Given the overall mood of the electorate, every legislator is going to be more concerned about getting re-elected than showing any political courage and getting finishing the stadium issue.

So what now?

Dayton and the Vikings should not abandon a special session or any efforts to get a stadium bill passed. Republican leaders and other skittish Democrats need to show political courage and take this issue head-on by answering why or why they don't support a new stadium. Avoiding the issue is not only a disservice to the Vikings, but also the citizens in this state who have a right to know where their legislators stand on the issue.

Legislators also need to hear from you - the voters and fans - on this issue too. You can find your legislators here. And if you don't live in Minnesota but still want the Vikings to stay, you can contact Dayton here, and write to our legislative leaders in the House and Senate. I recommend emailing them all so they can hear why the Vikings are important to this state.

Either way, voters and Vikings fans need to fight for this team. Otherwise we can kiss them goodbye and face the possibility of never luring another NFL team back to Minnesota.

Time for press to ask legislative leaders if they want Vikings in Minnesota

I have a challenge for journalists in Minnesota covering the Vikings stadium debate: Ask our legislative leaders if they want the Vikings to stay in Minnesota.

It's a simple  yes or no question that would speak volumes about how they feel about the presence of the National Football League in Minnesota. In all the articles I have read, along with all the broadcasts I have watched and listened to, there has not been a straight answer from House Speaker Kurt Zellers and Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch. Truthfully, I don't know where they stand.

Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch (center) and House Speaker Kurt Zellers (right)

But if you have been following the Vikings stadium debate, it's easy to say it's been anything but a cakewalk for the Vikings. Vikings owner Zygi Wilf and Lester Bagley, the team's vice president of public affairs and stadium development, have been unable to persuade legislators to support funding for a new $1.1 billion stadium. Wilf said he would contribute at least $400 million while the remaining $650 million would come from public financing through the state and a county sales tax. Their lease at the Metrodome expires in January. And without a new stadium, the Vikings and Gov. Mark Dayton said there's a possibility the team could move elsewhere, including Los Angeles. 

Legislators have been resistant to go along with the Vikings plan of the state contributing $300 million and Ramsey County $350 million in sales taxes. On Tuesday, Dayton rejected a stadium sales tax after legislative leaders told him there was not enough support in the Legislature to exempt Ramsey County or Minneapolis residents from voting on an increase in sales taxes in order to help pay for a new stadium. Minneapolis residents were included in the debate after Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak introduced three sites for the Vikings to consider in an effort to keep the team in Minneapolis.

There has also been resistance from legislators to expand gambling to help pay for a new stadium. And now Zellers said that he won't support a special session to finance a new Vikings stadium and believes the team can wait until the next regular session in 2012.

I don't fault reporters for continuing to ask Wilf about his willingness to keep the team in Minnesota if a stadium plan fails to pass. I also believe they're doing their job in addressing serious funding challenges for a new stadium, along with other needs in the state like health and human services, transportation, and education.

But I still haven't gotten a clear answer whether Minnesota's legislative leaders, along with the entire legislative body, want the team to stay.

Sports reporters have no problem asking head coaches or athletes these types of questions whenever rumors swirl about an impending departure from an organization. Just ask ESPN1500's Judd Zulgad how former Twins slugger Jim Thome answered that question before being traded to the Cleveland Indians in August  (Thome declined to comment and then walked away from the interview in disgust).

I am not advocating journalists to become cheerleaders for the Vikings organization because that's not their job. I just want them to hold everyone's feet to the fire in this debate and keep them honest. Asking legislators whether or not they want the Vikings to stay in Minnesota is a simple, objective question journalists should not be afraid to ask and legislators should not be afraid to answer.

Be careful what you wish for, Minnesota legislators

Another day, another Vikings stadium story in Minnesota. Only this time, elected officials said they would rather have the team leave than fund a new stadium.

State Sen. David Hann, R-Eden Prairie

During a press conference Thursday at the State Capitol, a bipartisan group of legislators announced their opposition to publicly funding a new Vikings stadium and expanding gambling statewide as a way to pay for the costs. Dubbed "the marriage of two bad ideas", Sen. David Hann, R-Eden Prairie, said there's always been a call for more casinos while solving budget challenges.

"The proponents of gambling describe this as harmless fun, entertainment and, in effect, free money," he said. "None of that is true. In fact, casino gambling is highly destructive to individuals, [and] to families."

Hann added that he was tired of professional sports teams using other states to blackmail the public to pay for stadiums for them to play in. "We don't want them to leave, but if they're going to leave I guess that is going to happen," he said.

Sen. David Thompson, R-Lakeville, also chimed in saying the Legislature didn't need to quickly resolve the stadium issue. In fact, he added that the team and the NFL would be the ones deciding if the Vikings move, not him. "If they make that decision, I personally am going to live with that," he said.

Other legislators joining Hann and Thompson included Sens. Warren Limmer, R-Maple Grove, Scott Dibble, DFL-Minneapolis, and state Rep. Ann Lenczewski, DFL-Bloomington.

State Sen. David Thompson, R-Lakeville

The Vikings are seeking public funding for a new stadium site in Arden Hills, 10 miles north of Minneapolis. Funding for the $1.1 billion stadium would include $407 million from Vikings owner Zygi Wilf, $300 million from the state, and $350 million from Ramsey County.

The Vikings have been looking to move out from the Metrodome since the early 2000s. They claim the stadium is outdated and isn't allowing them to be financially competitive with the other 31 teams around the league. Their lease ends in Feb. 2012 and the Vikings have said they won't renew unless there's a plan in place for a new stadium.

Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton, a Democrat, has called a special session for Nov. 21-23 and is pushing to get a stadium bill passed by Thanksgiving. He's gone on record expressing his support for a new stadium and that the team is an important asset to the state.

Truth be told, I once opposed public tax dollars funding sports stadiums. Like any business, I believed team owners could foot the bill for these new venues while the state continued funding more important things like education, health, and transportation. And even today, I don't like the idea of funding new things that everyone won't benefit from.

But I had a change of heart after some game-day experiences inside the Metrodome that included thin concourses to get around in, a lack of bathrooms and concession stands, and obstructed viewing all along the upper deck.

Associated Press aerial photo of deflated Metrodome in 2010.

I also had a change of heart after seeing our state's reputation diminish following the collapses of the I-35W bridge on Aug. 1, 2007 and the Metrodome roof on Dec. 12, 2010. The world and especially the NFL were exposed to the notion that we do a poor job maintaining our facilities and infrastructure while our leaders continued to believe we could get by on the cheap. Although the roof was replaced through insurance money, the bridge, along with numerous lawsuits, cost the state millions.

The world and the NFL have also been exposed to our state's history of allowing teams to move onto other markets and win championships. The Lakers moved to Los Angeles in 1960 and have gone on to win 17 NBA championships. The North Stars moved to Dallas and won numerous divisional titles, along with two conference championships and one Stanley Cup. Even the Twins almost left town through a possible move to Charlotte and even threats of contraction despite winning two World Series titles.

But most importantly, our state was in the news once again in the news for a government shutdown. Unlike previous shutdowns in the state, this one cost taxpayers millions of dollars and was the longest in recent memory in the United States.

However, some legislators don't seem to be concerned about potentially losing millions in revenue and adding another black eye to the state's reputation. It's a dangerous game of political chicken and it's a game our state cannot afford.

This is a view of a crowded concourse during a Vikings game

Vikings fans need to let every legislator know how important the Vikings are to this state. More importantly, they need to know why there's a need for a new stadium.

Some like state Rep. John Kriesel, R-Cottage Grove, understand and support a new stadium. Others, however, either don't get it, or are staying as far away from this issue so they can pass the buck on either Dayton or voters, like Senate Majority Leader Amy Koch, R-Buffalo.

As you may or may not have heard, Koch attended the Vikings most recent home game against the Green Bay Packers. Instead of talking about her game-day experience and conversation with Zygi Wilf and Vikings President Mark Wilf, she sent her spokesman, Michael Brodkorb, to pose for picture in Vikings gear and say it was her first home game and that she paid full price for her ticket. It should also be noted Koch has never supported funding for any stadiums in Minnesota - including stadiums for the Twins and Gophers football team.

I don't expect this debate to get easier, and I am sure the Vikings, Dayton, and other stadium supporters feel the same way. But I am hopeful that cooler heads will prevail and that a stadium deal can be reached.

Send Cook packing

When Leslie Frazier officially took over as the new head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, one of the things he made clear is that he wouldn't tolerate players who would bring bad chemistry to the organization.

Vikings cornerback Chris Cook. Photo courtesy of AP

He proved that at the beginning of training camp when he sent left tackle Bryant McKinnie packing after he showed up to camp at nearly 400 lbs. He did so again Tuesday by finally sending wide receiver Bernard Berrian out the door after little production and years of poor production and a bad attitude towards his quarterbacks and coaches.

And now Frazier is being asked to do it again - this time to second-year cornerback Chris Cook. Cook was charged Tuesday with felony domestic violence by strangulation following an altercation with his girlfriend early Saturday. If found guilty, he faces up to three years in prison and a fine of $5,000. He was released from custody Tuesday after posting $40,000 bail and is not allowed to have contact with the victim, nor is he allowed to leave the state of Minnesota.

According to the complaint, Cook was upset his girlfriend contacted her ex-boyfriend. The victim told Eden Prairie police he pushed her on the bed at his townhome, got on top of her, and then grabbed her neck, constricting her to breath.

The victim told police she broke free by grabbing a hold of his dreadlocked hair. Cook then struck her in the ear, sending her crashing into the wall. After the victim fled into the living room, Cook grabbed her neck and squeezed it.

Someone called 911 to report yelling and screaming and police arrived to find the victim with a bloody nose and upper lip. According to Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman, she had marks on her neck and hemorrhaging in her eye.

As a result, Cook spent the weekend in jail and missed the Vikings home game against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers beat the Vikings 33-27.

After posting bail, Cook wouldn't address reporters. But he took to Twitter apologizing to the Vikings organization, fans, and his family. Before that, he wrote, "There's always two sides to every story!!"

Keep in mind, this isn't Cook's first brush with the law. Earlier this year, he was found not guilty of brandishing a firearm in the state of Virginia after he allegedly pulled a gun on a neighbor where his family lives. At the time, Cook said he learned from this experience and Frazier even told him to watch is off-field behavior.

As sad as it is for me to say this, it is time for the Vikings to release him from the team. Yes, releasing him now may not seem like a fair shake. But given the seriousness of the charge and the conditions of his bail, it hinders the team's ability to win games on the road.

And fair or not, this shines a negative light on the Vikings organization, which has made strides in ridding itself of the infamous Love Boat scandal on Lake Minnetonka in 2005. You also have to believe that it is negatively affecting pubic opinion on a new Vikings stadium.

Many stadium supporters like myself consider the Vikings a state asset and would love to see them have a presence here. But looking at some comments on Facebook, ESPN, and other media outlets, people don't want to consider the team an asset when it garners negative attention like Cook's arrest and subsequent charge.

That's why I am asking Frazier to sit down with Cook as soon as possible to explain what this organization is trying to accomplish and why he needs to focus on his personal issues instead of being a Viking.

At age 24, I believe Cook has enough talent to eventually become an impact player in the league. And as is any case, there is always "the other side of the story", which may ultimately exonerate him in the courts (but not the NFL).

For now, Cook has to focus on getting through this by allowing the legal process to take its course and be prepared to face the consequences that go along with it. Keeping Cook on the roster only sets the organization back while they continue rebuilding and seek more public support for a new stadium.

UPDATE: According to KARE 11 News, Cook has been suspended from the team. The Vikings released a statement late Tuesday regarding Cook:

"Today's allegations against Chris Cook are very disturbing and disappointing. At this time, he is suspended without pay from the team while we continue to gather information regarding the situation. We will have no further comment until the appropriate time."