Goodbye, 2011. Predictions for 2012

End of the year stories and blog posts like this typically have reporters, editors, and publishers reflecting on the good, the bad, and the ugly in news, sports, entertainment, and politics.

President Barack Obama

But instead of boring you with the same stories rehashed over again in Minnesota and through The Associated Press, I am going to cut right to the chase and write about the Iowa Republican caucuses. And with the caucuses coming up Tuesday, I am reminded of Democrats deciding who was going to challenge President George W. Bush in 2004.

As you may or may not recall, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean was leading the polls and had some considerable endorsements from key Democrats. But a couple of weeks prior to the Iowa Caucus, Dean was losing traction while Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina were gaining. The end result was Kerry winning with 37 percent, followed by Edwards at 31 percent and Dean at 18 percent (which led to infamous Dean scream).

Like 2004, there is as much disdain for President Barack Obama from Republicans and conservatives as there was Bush from Democrats and liberals. And like 2004, I foresee Republicans and conservatives picking the safest candidate they believe can beat Obama in 2012: Mitt Romney. It doesn't matter that he's flip flopped on economic and social issues over the years. It also doesn't matter that he's Mormon instead of an Evangelical Christian. The way Romney has carried himself throughout the campaign by not making any serious waves against the Republican Party itself is setting himself up for an easier nomination process - much to the chagrin of Democrats.

Mitt Romney

Months ago, I wouldn't have been able to tell you who would have won the Iowa Republican caucuses (I could only tell you Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann wasn't going to win despite winning the Iowa Straw Poll earlier this year). But as we've seen the media and conservative activists pick apart the candidates - not to mention the candidates ferociously going after one another for every last vote - Romney seems to be the one coming out the least damaged and prepared for a very expensive campaign battle. As of this writing, Romney is leading in the latest Des Moines Register poll, followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich proved (at least to me) he couldn't remain competitive in the race forever with his strategy of bashing the media. Paul is scaring other candidates and even some of the most conservative Republicans like Iowa Congressman Steve King with some of his views on foreign policy. Texas Governor Rick Parry may look presidential, but he has sounded anything but presidential during debates and on the campaign trail. Santorum has been largely irrelevant until the last few days and there's more questions about whether he can stay financially competitive in a race with little money to continue forward. And Bachmann, well, she's Bachmann.

Prediction time on politics, sports, etc.

I don't like anointing candidates ahead of any caucus or primary. But I am making an easy prediction and saying Romney will not only win the Iowa Republican caucuses. He will go on to win the Republican nomination by Super Tuesday (March 6, 2012) and he will go on to pick Sen. John Thune of South Dakota as his running mate.

Ron Paul

I am also predicting that Paul will make a third party run for the White House and will be able to garner enough signatures to have his name added to the ballot in at least 40 states. Who he picks as his running mate, however, is a good question.

In congressional races in Washington, I am predicting that Republicans will regain control of the U.S. Senate and will hold on to the House of Representatives. However, I don't see House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell holding onto their leadership posts.

But through all of that, I see Obama being reelected again. Keep in mind, I am not a blind Obama loyalist. I just don't think any of the Republican candidates can beat him. And the way I see it, it's 2004 all over again with incumbent president beating the challenger (plus he'll hold onto Ohio and Pennsylvania).

Other predictions:

• The Vikings will finally secure a stadium deal from the Minnesota Legislature and Governor Mark Dayton; just don't expect it to be in Arden Hills or at the Metrodome site.
• The Vikings finish ahead of the Chicago Bears in the NFC North while the Detroit Lions win the division. Unfortunately, it will not save the jobs of Leslie Frazier (Vikings) and Lovie Smith (Bears).
• The DFL regains control of both chambers in the Minnesota Legislature, but with razor-thin margins.
• Minnesota voters will reject a constitutional amendment defining marriage between one man and one woman.
• System of a Down will finally reunite for a new album and tour in the U.S.

Well ladies and gentlemen, that's about it. Happy New Year's!

Herman Cain anything but simple

Herman Cain was anything but the simple man running for President of the United States he presented himself to be.

Herman Cain. Photo courtesy of Salon.com

He cast himself as an outside to Washington despite being the president and lobbyist of the National Restaurant Association. He had a tax plan that seemed like simple way to fix the tax code, but wound up raising a lot of questions if it would work and whom it would benefit. And he cast himself as someone with high moral character despite several allegations of sexual harassment and an affair that lasted more than a decade.

With those allegations taking their toll on Cain and his family, he announced Saturday that he was suspending his presidential campaign. Unlike most campaign suspensions, this move essentially put an end to his presidential campaign, at least for 2012. 

I can't blame him for taking a break from the campaign trail. The last two months have been anything but a smooth cruise toward the Iowa caucus in January. If anything, the recent sexual harassment and adultery allegations sound like a big conspiracy created by the mainstream media and "the political elite in Washington" to bring him down.

But instead of buying into the conspiracy, I was stuck watching some bizarre, yet entertaining political theater on television at what was supposed to be the grand opening of Cain's national headquarters in Atlanta.

Moments before Cain took the stage, his aides and supporters encouraged the crowd to vote for Cain and drive to early-voting states to drum up support. While Cain and his wife made their way to the stage, the music they chose (complete with Cain-esque lyrics) drowned out any cheering from the crowd - making him look like a smaller candidate than one of the top candidates in the Republican field. And then when Cain made the announcement, there were gasps and chants of "No!" from the audience.

So to paraphrase former NFL coach Dennis Green, Herman Cain is who we thought he was, which is a shame because he made the race interesting. Only this time, no one let him off the hook.